NFL Player Prop Bets Week 14

Week 14 of the NFL began with fireworks after the Lions beat the Packers 34-31 on Thursday Night at Ford Field in Detroit.

Let’s hope Sunday brings as much entertainment.

The slate features 11 games, and we’ve provided two player props below for Kansas City wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and Cleveland running back Nick Chubb.

Remember to bet responsibly and keep a careful eye on your bankroll.

Read our Week 14 NFL odds and parlay picks for more information on the upcoming action.

Week 14 Player Props

The odds for both picks were correct at the time of writing. They were also shopped across all legal U.S. sportsbooks.

DeAndre Hopkins (KC) over 3.5 receptions (-120 at bet365)

The veteran wide receiver has been enjoying life as a member of the AFC’s No. 1 seed Chiefs.

Going from the rebuilding Titans and Will Levis to the reigning Super Bowl Champions, spearheaded by Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, has attracted many comical analogies across the internet.

It’s comparable to going from a tricycle to a Lamborghini. This isn’t a slight directed at Levis. He’s still a young quarterback in development.

After Rashee Rice’s season-ending injury, Hopkins immediately took over the WR1 role in Kansas City’s offense.

At 32 years old, Hopkins might not be in his prime, but he continues to showcase his talent. This season, he’s earned a 78.4 overall grade by PFF, which ranks 22nd out of 97 receivers.

Last year with Levis and Ryan Tannehill, Hopkins still accrued 1,057 yards (75 receptions) for his seventh 1,000-yard season.

In his age-30 season with the Cardinals in 2022, he recorded 717 yards (64 receptions) in nine games.

An entire 17-game campaign would’ve more than likely seen him go over 1,000.

As a Chief, excluding in his debut, when he played sparingly on a short week, Hopkins has averaged 4.8 receptions per game since Week 9.

He’s exceeded the 3.5-reception mark in 4-of-5 (80%) contests throughout that span.

Last week against the Raiders, the Clemson product was targeted nine times, which was tied for the most as a Chief since Week 9.

He ended with a 24% first-read share, which was second to Travis Kelce, according to FantasyPros.

He also ran 36 routes, which was the second-most since Week 9. During the same period, he’s been targeted on 23.06% of his routes.

This week, he’ll face off against the Los Angeles Chargers, who have allowed 14 receivers to record four or more catches in 12 games.

In their past six contests, every opposing WR1 has managed to catch at least five passes.

WR1s vs. Los Angeles (Past 6 Weeks)

Week	Team	Receiver	Receptions
Week 8	Saints	Chris Olave	8
Week 9	Browns	Jerry Jeudy	7
Week 10	Titans	Calvin Ridley	5
Week 11	Bengals	Ja’Marr Chase	7
Week 12	Ravens	Zay Flowers	5
Week 13	Falcons	Drake London	9

Eight wide receivers have recorded four or more catches throughout the same span.

The Chiefs are 4-point favorites over the Chargers, which could lead to a balanced game script.

Kansas City has won nine of its 11 games by one score, making it unlikely a blowout will occur, which would hinder Hopkins’ targets.

The weather is also set to be decent, around 50 degrees with no rain and winds slightly under 10 mph, making it a favorable evening to sling the pigskin.

Hopkins’ odds (-120) to record over 3.5 receptions are much better at bet365 than at any other sportsbook.

Odds Comparison for Hopkins (Over 3.5 Receptions)

Sportsbook	Odds
bet365	-120
BetRivers	-129
Caesars	-129
BetMGM	-130
ESPN BET	-130
DraftKings	-135
FanDuel	-138

Many top projection models also predict he will surpass the 3.5-catch mark.

Model Projections for Hopkins’ Receptions

• Pro Football Focus (PFF): 4.7
• Action Network: 4.4
• RotoWire: 4.4
• FantasyPros: 4.2
• BettingPros: 4.2
• 4for4.com: 4.1
• FantasyPoints.com: 4.1
• ESPN: 3.9
• Covers: 3.7
• Numberfire: 3.45

Nick Chubb over 36.5 Rush Yards (-114 FanDuel)

Nick Chubb hasn’t looked like his former self after tearing his MCL and damaging his meniscus last year.

Pair that with a tough Pittsburgh run defense, and an under would sound appealing on most days.

In this case, I like the over, thanks to the extremely low total of 36.5 rush yards.

The low number is largely due to his performance last week against the Broncos (nine carries for 21 yards) and Pittsburgh’s run defense.

Against Denver, Cleveland quarterback Jameis Winston found success throwing for 495 yards.

Since the run game wasn’t working and Winston was shredding them through the air, offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey opted to keep the ball in Winston’s hands, allowing him to throw 58 times.

Denver is more rigid against the run than Pittsburgh, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry compared to 4.1.

I’m not saying the game plan will be completely balanced, but I can almost guarantee Winston won’t even come close to that many pass attempts (58).

Last week, Chubb and Jerome Ford split the carries with nine apiece.

This shouldn’t be too concerning because even when Chubb struggled the previous weeks, he still heavily outcarried Ford, who has never been a workhorse back for the Browns even when Chubb was injured.

Carries for Chubb and Ford when they both play (2024/2025 season)

Week	Carries for Chubb	Carries for Ford
Week 9	15	2
Week 11	11	5
Week 12	20	4
Week 13	9	9

Note: Week 10 was Cleveland’s bye.

Excluding Chubb’s first game back from injury, when he was clearly on a limited snap count due to rust, he’s cleared 36.5 rush yards in four of five contests (80%).

In Week 12, against the Steelers, the former Georgia Bulldog recorded 20 carries for 59 yards. It heavily snowed, which favored the run, but he still easily passed the 36 yards.

PFF’s offensive line vs. defensive line matchup projections rank Cleveland’s O-line much worse in terms of pass blocking against Pittsburgh’s D-line compared to run blocking.

If the projections hold true, it could also lead to Chubb receiving the rock more.

Winston threw three picks last week, and if he’s highly under pressure, it tends to lead to turnovers.

Pittsburgh has allowed 9/12 (75%) starting running backs to eclipse 36.5 yards this season.

Its defense ranks fourth in the NFL in rushing yards per game, allowing an average of 90.5, but over its past three contests, it has fallen to 12th, surrendering 100.7 (Teamrankings.com).

Throughout those three games, the unit has given up an average of five yards per carry, nearly a yard more than its season average of 4.1.

Other sportsbooks such as bet365 (-110 for the over) list Chubb’s total at 40.5 rush yards. FanDuel (-114) has the lowest yardage total (36.5) across all bookmakers.

Model Projections for Chubb’s Rush Yards

• Numberfire: 84.46
• FantasyPros: 62.5
• ESPN: 59.8
• RotoWire: 58.3
• BettingPros: 58.3
• Covers: 56
• 4for4.com: 54.1
• Pro Football Focus (PFF): 46.3
• FantasyPoints.com: 45.2
• Action Network: 43