NFL Parlay Picks Week 15 2024

Week 15 started underwhelming from an entertainment perspective, with the Rams beating the 49ers 12-6 on Thursday night in a contest featuring no touchdowns.

Sunday’s first two slates should feature fireworks as usual. They are scheduled a little differently, with seven early contests and five in the afternoon.

We’ve crafted up a parlay featuring wide receivers participating in both slates: Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET vs. BUF), Tank Dell (HOU vs. MIA) and DeAndre Hopkins (KC at CLE).

Remember to bet responsibly and carefully monitor your bankroll.

Read our Week 15 NFL odds and prop picks for more information regarding the upcoming action.

Note: Odds were correct at the time of writing.

Week 15 Parlay: Alternate Receiving Yards

St. Brown 40+, Dell 25+ and Hopkins 25+ rec yds (+104 at FanDuel)

Amon-Ra St. Brown’s Outlook (40+ Receiving Yards)

After exploding for 1,515 yards last season, Amon-Ra St. Brown has cooled down thanks to the Lions involving WR2 Jameson Williams more in the offense and running the ball more.

Through 13 games, St. Brown has recorded 863 yards. At this point a year ago, he’d accumulated exactly 200 more yards.

St. Brown is still clearly the team’s top receiving option and has 24.9% of the team’s target share. If anyone took the largest hit in terms of production, it’s tight-end Sam LaPorta.

The USC product, St. Brown, has recorded 40 or more yards in 10/13 (76.9%) games and is averaging 66.38 yards per outing.

He matches up this week against a Bills defense that has allowed eight receivers over the past five contests to accrue 40 or more receiving yards.

Last week, Rams receivers Puka Nacua (162 yards) and Cooper Kupp (92 yards) torched its secondary.

The Bills have also surrendered a 71% adjusted completion percentage to opposing wide receivers, which ranks third-worst in the NFL.

St. Brown has lined up 52% of the time in the slot this season compared to 47.4% out wide.

He’s projected to line up against slot corner Taron Johnson on 19 snaps, who has allowed an 80% catch rate this season.

St. Brown received a 96/100 matchup advantage grade against him by Pro Football Focus (PFF).

The 25-year-old is also projected to line up against right corner Rasul Douglas (75% catch rate) for eight snaps and received a 94 grade.

This contest is between the top two scoring offenses in the NFL. Detroit is averaging 32.1 points per game (1st), while the Bills (2nd) are scoring 30.5.

The total is set at 54.5 points by most sportsbooks, implying a shootout with both teams moving the ball up and down the field. This bodes well for St. Brown to receive plenty of opportunities.

Many top projection models also predict the former fourth-overall pick to record 40 or more receiving yards on Sunday.

Model Projections for St. Brown’s Receiving Yards

• Covers: 82.9
• PFF: 79.7
• 4for4.com: 75.4
• ESPN: 75.2
• FantasyPros: 74.9
• Numberfire: 73.70
• FantasyPoints.com: 73.1
• BettingPros: 70.7
• RotoWire: 70.27
• Action Network: 66.0

Tank Dell’s Outlook (25+ Receiving Yards)

It hasn’t been a glamorous sophomore season for Tank Dell, especially with high expectations after last year’s hot start.

Houston has endured offensive line issues and a drop off in quarterback play from C.J. Stroud. Dell also broke his fibula in Week 13 last season, which probably hasn’t helped him this year.

With all that being said, he still holds a firm grip on the WR2 position and is the third option in the offense behind running back Joe Mixon and wide receiver Nico Collins.

Dell has recorded 25 or more yards in 9/12 (75%) games this season.

Collins has also missed time this season due to injury. In games both have receivers participated in, Dell has 25+ receiving yards on 5/7 (71.4%) occasions.

Both Pro Football Focus (PFF) and Fantasypoints.com grade Dell’s matchup against Miami’s secondary as average.

This season, the Dolphins have allowed a secondary receiver to record 25 or more yards every single week aside from Week 2. This equates to 12/13 (92.3%).

The Week 2 contest was a 31-10 loss to Buffalo when Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa suffered a concussion in the second quarter.

The Bills held a heavy lead in the second quarter, and the game script didn’t require them to throw. The starters were pulled at the start of the fourth quarter.

Houston is a 2.5-point favorite against Miami, and Tagovailoa is healthy. If the game remains close, as oddsmakers suggest, a balanced game script should be on the cards.

Miami ranks 11th against the pass, surrendering 212.8 yards per game, but over the past three weeks, it has given up the ninth-most passing yards in the NFL on average (258.7).

Model Projections for Dell’s Receiving Yards

• PFF: 57.0
• RotoWire: 53.9
• FantasyPoints.com: 53.9
• Numberfire: 52.2
• FantasyPros: 51.5
• Action Network: 49
• ESPN: 48.7
• BettingPros: 47.4
• 4for4.com: 44.2

DeAndre Hopkins’ Outlook (25+ Receiving Yards)

After Rashee Rice was ruled out early in the season due to injury, Kansas City made a move for DeAndre Hopkins before the trade deadline.

The veteran wide receiver immediately became the Chiefs WR1 and, excluding his debut after just joining the team, has averaged seven targets per game as well as 54.6 receiving yards per game.

Including his debut, he’s recorded 25 or more yards in all eight contests.

This week, he’ll face a Browns defense that has allowed the eighth-most yards (159.07) per game to opposing wide receiver rooms.

Cleveland has also allowed 29 receivers in 13 games to record 25 or more receiving yards against them.

According to Derek Brown of FantasyPros, Cleveland utilizes single-high the third-most in the league at 63.9%.

Hopkins has excelled against single high as a Chief (excluding his debut), earning a 25.9% first-read share and a 21.5% target share.

The Chiefs are four-point favorites this week and, despite their impressive 12-1 record, have won 10 of their 12 games by one score.

If the game stays close, Hopkins should receive his usual target amount.

Model Projections for Hopkins’ Receiving Yards

• FantasyPoints.com: 57.0
• PFF: 56.6
• FantasyPros: 52.0
• 4for4.com: 50.7
• RotoWire: 49.8
• ESPN: 49.8
• Covers: 49.4
• BettingPros: 47.8
• Action Network: 47.0
• Numberfire: 46.81

Odds Comparison

The odds comparison below shows that FanDuel offers much better value than DraftKings.

Other bookmakers couldn’t be compared because they don’t allow the yardages selected for each player.

Sportsbook	Odds
FanDuel	+104
DraftKings	-112