NFL Player Prop Bets Week 15

Week 15 of the NFL season is upon us, with 14 games scheduled for Sunday.

We’ve provided two player prop tips for running backs in the early and afternoon slates: Carolina’s Chuba Hubbard (vs. Dallas) and New England’s Rhamondre Stevenson (at Arizona).

Remember to bet responsibly and keep a careful eye on your bankroll.

Read our Week 15 NFL odds and parlay picks for more information on the upcoming action.

Week 15 Player Props

The odds for both picks were correct at the time of writing. They were also shopped across all legal U.S. sportsbooks.

Chuba Hubbard anytime TD (-138 at bet365)

Chuba Hubbard has been the clear workhorse for Carolina this entire season.

The Panthers selected running back Jonathan Brooks in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft (46th overall) as their running back of the future.

Brooks, who had missed the majority of the year due to an ACL injury in college, slightly cut into Hubbard’s workload in Week 13 after recording six carries but suffered another ACL tear against the Eagles last week.

The injury cements Hubbard as the team’s clear-cut RB1 once again. He’s recorded a 68.3% rush attempt share, which is the fourth-highest among any tailback in the NFL.

Inside the red zone, he’s accrued an 85.1% rush attempt share (fifth) and received 40 carries (ninth).

Hubbard failed to score a touchdown during the first two games of the season when Carolina and quarterback Bryce Young struggled immensely (They scored 17 total points during that span).

Since then, he’s scored nine touchdowns in the past 11 games. In 13 games total, he’s found the end zone nine times for an average of .69 touchdowns per outing.

He’s also scored five touchdowns in the last five weeks.

The Oklahoma State product faces a mouthwatering matchup against a Dallas defense that has given up the most total touchdowns (14 rushing and two receiving) to opposing running backs in 13 games.

The Cowboys rank third-worst in the NFL against the run, allowing an average of 141.9 yards per game. They are also giving up an average of 4.8 yards per carry, which is the fourth-most.

Pro Football Focus (PFF) gives Carolina’s offensive line the third-best matchup grade in terms of run blocking against Dallas. FantasyPoints.com lists the Panthers as the 10th-best grade.

Carolina is listed as a three-point favorite, which also helps Hubbard potentially receive more carries and scoring opportunities than usual.

He’s taken his opportunities well so far by recording the fifth-most yards after contact (571), trailing only Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley and Tony Pollard.

The 26-year-old is also a receiving threat in the red zone. He’s caught two touchdowns and has been targeted 10 times (fifth-most).

Hubbard’s rush attempts total is set between 17.5 and 18.5 on most bookmakers, and the rushing yard total is 81.5 yards.

The Cowboys have given up the second-most points per game (28.2) in the NFL, so there should be plenty of trips to the red zone for a Panthers team that has looked much better over the past five weeks (23 points per contest).

Hubbard’s odds to score at bet365 (-138) are significantly better than every other bookmaker’s.

Odds Comparison for Hubbard Anytime TD

Sportsbook	Odds
bet365	-138
Caesars	-160
ESPN BET	-170
DraftKings	-175
BetMGM	-185
FanDuel	-185

Note: BetRivers wasn’t listing odds at the time of writing.

Many top projection models also predict the 25-year-old to break the plane on Sunday.

Model Projections for Hubbard Anytime TD

• 4for4.com: 0.9
• FantasyPoints.com: 0.83
• Numberfire: 0.81
• Pro Football Focus (PFF): 0.8
• BettingPros: 0.71
• ESPN: 0.7
• FantasyPros: 0.7
• RotoWire: 0.69

Rhamondre Stevenson over 12.5 carries (-130 at DraftKings)

After struggling early in the season and temporarily losing his starting job, Rhamondre Stevenson regained his role as the Patriots RB1.

He’s been given the bell cow role over most of the past four weeks.

Since Week 10, the Oklahoma product has recorded 20, 20, 8 and 18 carries. He’s also recorded 20 or more carries on three occasions, along with his recent 18 in four of the last six contests.

Excluding Week 5, when he left the contest against Miami with a foot injury, Stevenson has eclipsed 12.5 carries in 7/11 (63.63%) of games.

Stevenson also received just six carries when he was injured in Week 3 against the Jets, where he missed most of the first half after his finger got caught in a facemask.

He was able to return during the second half but fumbled on his carry and never received another one.

The former fourth-rounder is averaging 15 carries per game throughout the entire season.

Stevenson’s workload often depends on the game script.

Aside from the Week 5 Miami game, when he left permanently due to injury, he’s received under 12.5 rush attempts in three games when the Patriots were trailing heavily and ultimately lost by 16 or more points.

The only close game Stevenson didn’t rush for more than 12.5 carries was in the 20-17 loss to the Titans in Week 9. He received 10 carries.

A likely reason is the Titans have been extremely stout against the run, allowing just 4.1 yards per rush attempt (only five teams surrender less).

This week, the 26-year-old will face an Arizona defense allowing 4.5 yards per carry (12th-worst) and 121.8 yards per game (18th).

Last week, Seattle running back Zach Charbonnet gashed the Cardinals for 134 yards on the ground on 22 carries (6.09 yards per carry).

Arizona has allowed 10 starting running backs in 13 games (76.92%) to record at least 14 or more carries against them.

The Patriots opened as three-point underdogs to the Cardinals, and the line has since moved to six.

If the oddsmakers are correct, and the game does stay within one score, Stevenson should receive a normal workload.

Model Projections for Stevenson’s Rush Attempts

• ESPN: 15.0
• Action Network: 14.9
• FantasyPros: 14.7
• BettingPros: 14.2
• 4for4.com: 14.2
• Numberfire: 14.16
• FantasyPoints.com: 13.8
• RotoWire: 12.8
• Pro Football Focus (PFF): 9.6