Note: Updated 2024 page coming soon.

Week 14 was an interesting week for player prop bets in the NFL.

New England Patriots’ quarterback Bailey Zappe threw for three touchdowns, Atlanta Falcons’ QB Desmond Ridder threw for 347 yards and Falcons’ receiver Drake London caught 10 passes for 172 yards, Browns’ QB Joe Flacco threw for 311 yards and three touchdowns, and Houston Texans’ QB C.J. Stroud only threw for 91 yards.

That was just a few of them.

For reference, Zappe to throw for three touchdown passes was +15000 at bet365, Ridder’s passing yards prop was only 196.5 yards at BetRivers and London to have over 4.5 receptions was +135 at bet365 and his receiving yards prop was 48.5.

Also, Flacco’s passing yards prop was only 203.5 yards and +15000 to throw three touchdowns at bet365, and C.J. Stroud fell way below his already low passing yards prop of 208.5 yards at Caesars.

Bettors looking for the ultimate edge on player props can find in-depth analysis and projections for NFL player props on BestOdds EDGE.

Let’s try and find some interesting prop bets for Week 15.

As always, all prop bets are shown with the best odds!

Gardner Minshew – QB, Indianapolis Colts

As the weather gets a little more frightful across the country, the Indianapolis Colts are less concerned about the weather in their climate-controlled confines of Lucas Oil Stadium.

While some QBs will be trying to complete passes in the face of mother nature, QBs inside Lucas Oil Stadium will just try to complete passes. That’s it.

Colts’ QB Gardner Minshew could be in for a big game against the Pittsburgh Steelers this week, considering what Zappe did to Pittsburgh last week.

The Steelers have allowed 244.5 passing yards per game (20th in the NFL), and that’s after the weak schedule against opposing QBs in recent weeks.

In the last four weeks, Pittsburgh has faced Dorian Thompson-Robinson of the Cleveland Browns, Jake Browning of the Cincinnati Bengals in his first NFL start, Kyler Murray of the Arizona Cardinals, and Zappe on Thursday Night Football last week.

Pittsburgh allowed an average of only 194.3 passing yards to those four quarterbacks.

In the Steelers’ previous nine games, they allowed an average of 266.1 passing yards per game.

Pittsburgh’s passing defense could look even worse on paper if not for the recent schedule of opposing QBs.

While Gardner Minshew isn’t winning the MVP this season, he can certainly do some damage against the Steelers’ defense this Saturday.

Gardner Minshew to Michael Pittman Jr Passing TD (5/2) pic.twitter.com/LrFdkQA7SC

— NFL TD Videos (@NFLTDVideos2023) October 22, 2023

Minshew is averaging 267.7 passing yards over the last three games, and his season average (194.2 ypg) would be higher if not for the in-and-out situations with Anthony Richardson earlier in the season.

Bettors can take Minshew’s alternate passing yards line of 300+ yards at FanDuel for a +490 value, but I’ll stick with the traditional line here.

Pick: Minshew – OVER 231.5 Passing Yards

Best Odds: (-110) bet365

Jahmyr Gibbs – RB, Detroit Lions

Gibbs is a multi-talented running back for the Detroit Lions.

Gibbs has run for 692 yards on 128 carries (5.41 ypc) and he has hauled in 45 receptions for 288 receiving yards.

Those are solid numbers for a man who is still splitting work in the backfield with David Montgomery.

This week, Detroit hosts the Denver Broncos, and the Broncos have had an issue with slowing down versatile running backs.

Austin Ekeler of the Los Angeles Chargers tallied 100 total yards rushing and receiving against Denver last week, even after losing quarterback Justin Herbert.

JAHMYR GIBBS TOUCHDOWN
pic.twitter.com/OSuZD2QOtl

— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) December 10, 2023

Gibbs has a rushing and receiving prop of 77.5 yards on FanDuel.

In 13 games this season, Denver has allowed 12 running backs to total over 77.5 rushing and receiving yards.

Even Ty Chandler of the Minnesota Vikings picked up 73 rushing yards and 37 receiving yards in the same game against the Broncos defense in Week 11 while playing behind Alexander Mattison in an already unspectacular Vikings’ backfield.

Gibbs is going to rack up the yards.

Pick: Gibbs – OVER 77.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards

Best Odds: (-114) FanDuel

Cooper Kupp & Puka Nacua – WRs, Los Angeles Rams

When both are healthy, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua may be the best wide receiver tandem in the NFL.

Kupp is only averaging 60.8 receiving yards per game this season, but that number has been dragged down due to injuries.

Nacua is averaging 85.6 receiving yards per game, and his 1,113 receiving yards is fifth-best in the NFL, behind only Keenan Allen, CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, and Tyreek Hill.

That’s good company to be in for the rookie receiver out of BYU.

The Los Angeles Rams will host the Washington Commanders this week, and this matchup will present a great opportunity for both Kupp and Nacua.

Kupp will be largely running out of the slot, and he will be predominantly shadowed by Commanders’ cornerback Jartavis Martin.

Here’s how slot receivers have fared against Washington in the last five games:

WAS Opponent	Slot Receiver	Results
Week 9: New England	Demario Douglas	5 Rec, 55 Yds (7 Targets)
Week 10: Seattle	Jaxson Smith-Njigba	4 Rec, 53 Yds (5 Targets)
Week 11: New York (N)	Wan’Dale Robinson	3 Rec, 35 Yds (4 Targets)
Week 12: Dallas	CeeDee Lamb	4 Rec, 53 Yds, TD (9 Targets)
Week 13: Miami	Tyreek Hill	5 Rec, 157 Yds, 2 TD (7 Targets)

That’s an average of 4.2 receptions for 70.6 yards on 6.4 targets to slot receivers over the last five games for the Commanders.

Assuming that Kupp will receive more than six targets, he should be able to outproduce his receiving yards prop.

Nacua will be working on the outside, mainly being covered by Washington’s Kendall Fuller.

Here’s how receivers have done against Fuller in the same time period.

WAS Opponent	Wide Receiver	Results
Week 9: New England	JuJu Smith-Schuster	6 Rec, 51 Yds (7 Targets)
Week 10: Seattle	DK Metcalf	7 Rec, 98 Yds (12 Targets)
Week 11: New York (N)	Darius Slayton	4 Rec, 82 Yds, TD (5 Targets)
Week 12: Dallas	Brandin Cooks	4 Rec, 72 Yds, TD (5 Targets)
Week 13: Miami	Jaylen Waddle	5 Rec, 52 Yds (8 Targets)

That’s an average of 5.2 receptions for 71 yards on 7.4 targets.

Nacua is averaging 9.8 targets per game this season, so I would assume he would receive a large enough target share to eclipse his receiving yards prop.

Pick: Kupp – OVER 72.5 Receiving Yards

Best Odds: (-114) FanDuel

Pick: Nacua – OVER 66.5 Receiving Yards

Best Odds: (-114) FanDuel

Bettors can place a Same Game Parlay on Kupp and Nacua to both go over their receiving yards props on FanDuel at +262!

Christian McCaffrey – RB, San Francisco 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers face the Arizona Cardinals in Week 15, and that matchup bodes well for Christian McCaffrey.

Arizona is allowing 139.3 rushing yards per game (30th in the NFL), and the Cardinals have allowed 18 total touchdowns (12 rushing, 6 receiving) to running backs in 13 games.

Last time these two teams met in Week 4, McCaffrey ran in three touchdowns and caught a fourth.

Four touchdowns for Christian McCaffrey #FTTB #FPC #NFL #NFLTwitter

pic.twitter.com/JUZAlHHgF9

— Full Press NFL (@FullPressNFL) October 1, 2023

McCaffrey is basically a one-man touchdown machine, scoring 17 touchdowns this season (12 rushing, 5 receiving), and he didn’t even score one last week against the Seattle Seahawks.

Call it the “Gambler’s Fallacy” or the “Monte Carlo Fallacy”, but the way I see it, McCaffrey is due to find paydirt in Week 15.

Yeah, 49ers running back Jordan Mason stole a touchdown away from McCaffrey after a 72-yard run last week, but I don’t expect that to be the norm moving forward.

McCaffrey has an outside shot of winning the MVP, currently sitting at +4000 at BetMGM, and this game against an awful Cardinals’ defense can provide a nice stat-padding opportunity.

Whether he runs it in, or catches it in the painted grass, McCaffrey is scoring twice.

McCaffrey only needs to score half as many times against Arizona this week as he did back in Week 4.

Pick: McCaffrey – OVER 1.5 Touchdowns

Best Odds: (+162) Caesars