NFL Parlay Picks Week 16 2024

Week 16 began with the Chargers defeating their AFC West divisional foes, the Broncos, 34-27 on Thursday night at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles.

The week will continue with two games slated for Saturday and 12 on Sunday.

We’ve assembled an alternate receiving yards parlay for the following three receivers scheduled to play Sunday: Jauan Jennings (SF at MIA), Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI at CAR) and Jordan Addison (MIN at SEA).

Remember to bet responsibly and carefully monitor your bankroll.

Read our Week 16 NFL odds and prop picks for more information regarding the upcoming action.

Note: Odds were correct at the time of writing.

Week 16 Parlay: Alternate Receiving Yards

Jennings 40+, Harrison Jr. 25+ and Addison 25+ rec yds (-130 at FanDuel)

Jennings’ Outlook (40+ Receiving Yards)

Jennings struggled last week to connect with quarterback Brock Purdy and recorded just two receptions for 31 yards in the 12-6 loss to the Rams.

However, he led the team with nine targets.

Just about everyone put up a subpar performance due to the rainy weather. It was an odd outcome, being the first game this season with neither franchise scoring a touchdown.

This was Jennings’ first game since taking over the WR1 role, in which he failed to record 40 or more yards.

After Brandon Aiyuk went down due to injury, Jennings became the 49ers’ top receiving threat.

Since Week 10, the first time he played without Aiyuk, Jennings has earned a dominating 28.6% target share and 35.5% first read share.

The Cowan, Tennessee native averaged 66.8 yards and eight targets per game throughout that span and accumulated 31.5% of San Francisco’s yards.

Even when he was the WR3 before Aiyuk’s injury, he still earned 24.8% of the team’s yards, so Purdy definitely loves throwing to him.

Since Week 10, the former quarterback turned receiver has accrued 40+ yards in 5/6 (83.3%) contests.

This week, he’ll face off against a Dolphins that has allowed 15 receivers to record 40 or more yards in 14 outings.

What also makes this matchup intriguing for Jennings is the Dolphins use a two-high shell 57.3% of the time (H/T Derek Brown).

This gives him an advantage since he’s earned a 37% first-read share against two high.

Pro Football Focus gives him an excellent grade against the three corners that will cover him.

Wide Receiver vs. Cornerback Matchups (Data from PFF)

Defender (Position)	Matchup Grade (0-100)	Projected Snaps	Catch Rate
Kader Kohou (SCB)	Excellent (85.8)	10	69%
Kendall Fuller (LCB)	Excellent (85.6)	5	62%
Jalen Ramsey (RCB)	Good (72.4)	11	72%

Note: CB: Cornerback S: Slot L: Left R: Right

Purdy’s passing yards total is 245.5 on FanDuel, so if oddsmakers are accurate and it comes close, there’s an excellent chance Jennings can reach the 40+ receiving yards mark.

The former Tennessee Volunteer’s standard receiving total is 61.5 yards on FanDuel.

Miami is a one-point favorite on most books, so the game script should involve plenty of passing.

Many top projection models also predict the 27-year-old will enjoy a nice day through the air.

Model Projections for Jennings’ Receiving Yards

• ESPN: 75.4
• Covers: 70.3
• PFF: 69.9
• FantasyPros: 69.7
• Action Network: 69.0
• FantasyPoints.com: 68.3
• RotoWire: 67.3
• 4for4.com: 64.9
• BettingPros: 64.2
• Numberfire: 62.10

Harrison Jr.’s Outlook (25+ Receiving Yards)

It hasn’t been all sunshine and rainbows for Harrison Jr. after being the highest-drafted wide receiver (No. 4 overall) in the 2024 NFL Draft.

The 6-foot-4 weapon was expected to dominate by many pundits and easily clear 1,000 yards receiving in his first season with the Cardinals.

Instead, he’s sitting at 687 yards on just 47 receptions.

This is a combination of his play, not being on the same page as quarterback Kyler Murray, Arizona running the ball at the ninth-highest frequency (46.05%) and being the second option behind tight end Trey McBride.

Nevertheless, he’s still the WR1 on the depth chart. Since the Week 11 bye, Harrison Jr. is averaging eight targets and 47 yards per game.

Throughout this season, the son of NFL Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison Sr. has averaged 49.07 yards per contest.

Harrison Jr. has recorded 25 or more yards in 11/14 (78.57%) outings, including seven in a row.

The Ohio State product will face the Panthers, who have allowed 32 wide receivers in 14 games to accrue 25 or more receiving yards against them.

He will be covered most of the afternoon by cornerbacks Chau Smith-Wade (68% catch rate), Mike Jackson (67%) and Jaycee Horn (55%).

He has a massive height advantage over all three of them. Smith-Wade is 5’11”, and the other two are 6’1”.

The Panthers pass defense has also allowed the sixth-highest adjusted completion percentage (68.6%) to wide receivers this campaign (H/T Covers).

Model Projections for Harrison Jr.’s Receiving Yards

• PFF: 59.1
• Numberfire: 56.24
• FantasyPros: 56.1
• ESPN: 55.0
• Covers: 54.3
• RotoWire: 54.0
• FantasyPoints.com: 53.8
• Action Network: 53.0
• BettingPros: 50.5
• 4for4.com: 47.0

Addison’s Outlook (25+ Receiving Yards)

After injuring his ankle in Week 1 against the Giants, Addison missed the next two games, and his numbers were streaky for the next few weeks as he developed a rapport with quarterback Sam Darnold.

Then BOOM. Addison exploded onto the scene and caught fire starting in Week 11.

Since then, he’s averaged 94.6 receiving yards per game, 8.4 targets, 33.7% of the team’s yards, a 30.8% first-read share, 25.3% target share, 71.4% catch rate and an 81% catchable target rate.

In other words, it’s more than safe to say he’s clicking with Darnold. He’s earned an astonishing 21 targets for 196 yards in his past two games.

The USC product has recorded 25 or more yards in 11-of-12 (91.66%) contests this season.

Addison has found open space with opposing teams frequently double-covering his superstar teammate, wide receiver Justin Jefferson (arguably the best wide receiver in football).

The former 23rd overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft (Addison) will face a Seahawks secondary on Sunday that has allowed two receivers from each opposing team to record at least 34 yards in the past five weeks.

Minnesota is only a three-point favorite away to Seattle, which should lead to a balanced game plan. Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith was injured last Sunday against Green Bay but is expected to play.

Addison’s standard receiving yards total is 55.5 on FanDuel.

Model Projections for Addison’s Receiving Yards

• FantasyPoints.com: 71.0
• ESPN: 66.7
• FantasyPros: 65.3
• RotoWire: 65.2
• Numberfire: 64.42
• 4for4.com: 62.8
• Action Network: 61.0
• BettingPros: 59.8
• PFF: 50.7

Odds Comparison

The odds comparison in the table below shows that FanDuel offers a much better value than DraftKings for this wager.

Other bookmakers couldn’t be compared because they don’t allow the yardages selected for each player.

Sportsbook	Odds
FanDuel	-130
DraftKings	-147