Note: Updated 2024 article coming soon.

Congratulations to any bettor that took the over on touchdown passes from Raiders’ QB Aidan O’Connell, Lions’ QB Jared Goff, Buccaneers’ QB Baker Mayfield, or 49ers’ QB Brock Purdy in Week 15.

Between the four of them, they threw for 17 touchdowns!

Mayfield had a valuable prop of +150 on over 1.5 touchdown passes on BetRivers.

There will certainly be valuable prop options in Week 16 too!

Jared Goff to throw for 4+ touchdowns against the Minnesota Vikings is available for any interested bettors on FanDuel for the wonderful value of +920!

But, for bettors looking to sweat a little less this holiday season, let’s take a gander at some player props that are a little more feasible.

And for those that are doing any last minute shopping for the holidays, don’t forget to shop around for the best betting lines as well!

Josh Allen – QB, Buffalo Bills

In Week 16, the Buffalo Bills get a matchup against a Los Angeles Chargers’ defense that has been wasted by its own ineptitude.

Khalil Mack and his 15 sacks is nice, but the rest of the Chargers’ defense? Not nice!

Especially LA’s 32nd-ranked passing defense.

Josh Allen is averaging 252.9 passing yards per game, and against this broken defensive secondary, I see no reason for him to finish with less than 250 yards.

Behind the numbers from Josh Allen's 81-yard touchdown pass to Khalil Shakir in the @BuffaloBills' Week 11 win over the Jets 📽️#NYJvsBUF | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/YlDtrue04j

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 21, 2023

The only thing that concerns me about taking the over on Josh Allen’s passing yards prop, is if the Easton Stick-led offense on the other side gets blanked.

As BestOdds’ NFL First Half Against the Spread Stats show, the Bills are a strong 9-5 against the spread in the first half, and if they get too big of a lead, that could spell trouble for Allen collecting at least 243 passing yards.

Honestly, I believe Allen could flirt with 200 passing yards in the first half alone.

Buffalo gets to ply their trade in the domed SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, and after last week’s sloppy mess against the Cowboys resulted in diminished numbers, the Bills can put on an offensive show this week and pad some stats.

I’m still confused on why the Bills play in an open air stadium in Buffalo, but the Chargers and Rams play under a closed roof in sunny Los Angeles?

Pick: Allen – OVER 242.5 Passing Yards

Best Odds: (-114) BetRivers

Justin Fields – QB, Chicago Bears

Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears will welcome the visiting Arizona Cardinals in Week 16, and the Bears will give a warm welcome to Arizona’s 31st-ranked rushing defense.

Chicago’s split backfield features the slightly underwhelming triumvirate of Khalil Herbert, D’Onta Foreman, and Roschon Johnson.

Instead of risking disaster by blindly throwing a dart at any of those three running backs, I’ll back Justin Fields on the ground against the Cardinals.

Fields is averaging 48.8 rushing yards per game this season, and in his last five starts he’s averaging 59.4 yards, including a 104-yard rushing performance against the Detroit Lions in Week 11; his first game back from injury in Week 6.

There’s been a lot of talk about the Bears trading Fields and drafting Caleb Williams, but Fields is also capable of some impressive things.

Like this for example:

Brief interruption from the Lions to bring you THIS RUN by Justin Fields…. WOW pic.twitter.com/XKzwF3sEcu

— Jim Costa (@JimCosta_) December 18, 2022

Arizona has not seen too many mobile QBs, playing Matt Stafford twice this season, who is basically a stone in the pocket.

The Cardinals did play Lamar Jackson, but the Ravens had such a large lead the Jackson only ran the ball five times.

One man the Cardinals have played that could be deemed comparable: Daniel Jones of the New York Giants.

Jones ran nine times for 59 yards and a touchdown in a 31-28 win over Arizona in Week 2.

I believe this matchup could be as close as that one, and Fields will need to create his own first downs every now and then.

If Jones can get 59 yards, then Fields can get 100.

Let’s see if a good performance from Fields can stave off the trade conversations for another day.

Pick: Fields – OVER 54.5 Rushing Yards

Best Odds: (-114) FanDuel

Mike Evans – WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Evans continues to be a great veteran receiver for Baker Mayfield and the Bucs, averaging 4.7 receptions and 76.9 receiving yards per game.

The number of catches may not be high for Evans, but he usually produces well in yardage.

Evans’ 16.3 yards per catch is the sixth-best mark among all wide receivers, and he has made 10 receptions of 25 or more yards this season.

Against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 16, Evans has an easy cornerback matchup, lining up against Jaguars’ Montaric Brown.

Here’s how No. 1 receivers have fared against Montaric Brown of the Jags in the last five games:

JAX Opponent	WR with Brown in Coverage	WR Results
Week 11: Tennessee	DeAndre Hopkins	4 Rec, 59 Yds, TD
Week 12: Houston	Nico Collins	7 Rec, 104 Yds, TD
Week 13: Cincinnati	Ja’Marr Chase	11 Rec, 149 Yds, TD
Week 14: Cleveland	Amari Cooper	7 Rec, 77 Yds
Week 15: Baltimore	Odell Beckham Jr.	1 Rec, 14 Yds

Beckham didn’t do much last week, but didn’t really have to as Baltimore tight end Isaiah Likely did most of the damage against Jacksonville’s defense.

Tight ends can do well against the Jags too, so keep an eye on Cade Otton.

I’m expecting Evans to get a chunk of targets in this potential shootout between Mayfield and Lawrence.

When Evans receives at least 10 targets, he’s averaging 87.1 yards per game.

Pick: Evans – OVER 66.5 Receiving Yards

Best Odds: (-110) BetMGM

DK Metcalf – WR, Seattle Seahawks

I like the wide receiver/cornerback matchup between Evans and Montaric Brown, but I like DK Metcalf’s matchup even more against the Tennessee Titans.

Titans’ corner Khristian Fulton went on injured reserve a few weeks ago, and in his absence, Tre Avery has failed to stop his opposing wide receivers.

In the last two weeks, Avery allowed Dolphins’ receiver Jaylen Waddle to catch six passes for 79 yards and followed that by allowing Texans’ receiver Noah Brown to catch eight passes for 82 yards and a touchdown with backup QB Case Keenum chucking the pigskin around.

Here’s my Tale of the Tape on Metcalf vs. cornerback Tre Avery.

WR vs. CB	Metcalf	Avery
Height	6’4″	5’11”
Weight	235 lbs.	181 lbs.
Body Type	Greek God	High School Point Guard
Reach	For The Stars	For The Bench

I don’t give a hoot which quarterback is out there for Seattle, Geno Smith or Drew Lock.

Send out Warren Moon if you have to, but Metcalf is catching a ball in the painted grass.

Pick: Metcalf – Anytime Touchdown

Best Odds: (+163) bet365