NFL Week 17 Parlay Picks

Week 17 of the NFL got off to a boring start for most viewers, thanks to two blowouts by the Chiefs and Ravens on Christmas, as well as Seattle winning a touchdown-less game on Thursday night.

There should be plenty of upcoming fireworks, with a three-game slate scheduled for Saturday and nine contests on Sunday.

We’ve provided an alternate receiving yards parlay for Sunday featuring Terry McLaurin (WAS vs. ATL) and Jordan Addison (MIN vs. GB).

Remember to bet responsibly and carefully monitor your bankroll.

Read our Week 17 NFL odds by Sean and my prop picks for more information regarding the upcoming action.

Note: Odds were correct at the time of writing.

Week 17 Parlay: Alternate Receiving Yards

Terry McLaurin and Jordan Addison 40+ rec yds each (-140 at bet365)

Terry McLaurin’s Outlook (40+ Receiving Yards)

The Ohio State product is enjoying a career year and finally has stability at the quarterback position with the frontrunner for Rookie of the Year: Jayden Daniels.

McLaurin has recorded 73 receptions for 1,029 yards and 12 touchdowns through 15 games.

The 29-year-old has attained 40 or more yards in 11-of-15 (73.33%) contests this year and is averaging 68.6 yards per game.

Two of the four outings when he went under the 40-yard mark were during the first two weeks of the season while he and Daniels were still establishing a connection. Daniels also attempted just 24 and 29 passes. 

Since Week 10, he hasn’t attempted less than 30 and is averaging 34 over the six-game span.

This week, McLaurin will face a Falcons defense allowing the 11th-most yards per game (155.2) to opposing wide receiver rooms.

Opponents’ WR1s have performed well against the Falcons and are averaging 90.8 yards per game over the past five weeks.

WR1s vs. Atlanta (Last Five Weeks)

Week	Receiver (Team)	Receiving Yards
Week 16	Malik Nabers (NYG)	68
Week 15	Jakobi Meyers (LV)	59
Week 14	Justin Jefferson (MIN)	132
Week 13	Ladd McConkey (LAC)	117
Week 11	Courtland Sutton	78

Note: Atlanta had a bye in Week 12.

Over the previous five weeks, the Falcons have allowed 10 receivers to record 40 or more yards against them.

This season, receivers have attained 40 or more yards against the Falcons 23 times.

McLaurin has accumulated a 27% first-read share, 21.2% target share (6.5 per game), and 29.3% of the team’s yards. In the past month, he’s averaged 7.5 targets per game.

He’s also enjoyed a ridiculously high 85.6% catchable targets and a 75.3% catch rate.

This week, he’ll line up against a trio of Washington defenders surrendering the following catch rates: Slot corner Dee Alford (73%), A.J. Terrell (69%) and Mike Hughes (66%).

The Commanders are four-point favorites over the Falcons, and if oddsmakers are accurate and the game remains close, a balanced game plan should involve plenty of passing.

Atlanta has also defended the run well, surrendering an average of 4.3 yards per carry (only seven teams allow less), so attacking through the air might be the offense’s preferred option.

Across different bookmakers, McLaurin’s standard receiving yards total ranges from 63.5 to 66.5 yards.

Many top projection models also predict McLaurin will have a solid evening.

Model Projections for McLaurin’s Receiving Yards

• ESPN: 74.5
• PFF: 74.5
• RotoWire: 71.37
• FantasyPros: 70.8
• 4for4.com: 70.5
• Numberfire: 68.21
• DraftSharks: 67.5
• Action Network: 67.0
• FantasyPoints.com: 66.4
• BettingPros: 66.1
• Covers: 58.6

Jordan Addison’s Outlook (40+ Receiving Yards)

The Vikings WR2 has enjoyed an excellent sophomore season with 56 receptions, 806 receiving yards and eight touchdowns despite missing 2.5 games.

The USC wide receiver would’ve almost certainly hit the 1,000-yard mark if not for sustaining an injury in Week 1 against the Giants.

Since Week 11, Addison has seen an increased role in the offense and has been targeted eight or more times in all but one contest.

During that span, he’s averaged 84.7 yards per game, a 24.4% target share and 30.8% of the team’s yards.

He’s also earned a 28.7% first-read share, had 83.3% catchable targets and a 71.4% catch rate.

Excluding Week 1, when he was injured, the 22-year-old has recorded 40 or more yards in 8/12 (66.66%) games.

He’s also recorded 54 or more yards in five of his past six games. He failed to hit the 40-yard mark (35 yards) last week against the Vikings, but the opportunity was there, thanks to his eight targets.

Green Bay has been stout against wide receiver rooms, allowing the third-fewest yards to the position (128.8 yards per game).

However, they faced a pair of backup mediocre quarterbacks over the past five weeks: New Orleans’ Spencer Rattler (Week 15) and San Francisco’s Brandon Allen (Week 12), which has definitely helped boost this stat.

Geno Smith was playing well in Week 15 against them and was 15-of-19 for 149 yards before leaving the game halfway through the third quarter due to injury.

Sam Howell came in to relieve him and played the majority of the second half but only recorded 5-of-14 passes for 24 yards.

Green Bay has actually allowed the 10th-highest completion percentage (66.46%) to opposing quarterbacks this year.

The last time Addison played Green Bay in Week 4, he surpassed 40 yards by making three catches for 72 yards.

The Packers have also allowed receivers to record 40 or more yards on 22 occasions this campaign.

They will likely double Minnesota’s superstar wideout Justin Jefferson most of the time, allowing Addison to have space. This has been the common theme for most secondaries defending the Vikings.

Addison will see coverage primarily from right corner Carrington Valentine (73% catch rate), left corner Keisean Nixon (69% catch rate) and slot corner Javon Bullard (109.8 passer rating allowed).

Green Bay has defended the run extremely well, surrendering just 3.7 yards per carry (third-best in the NFL) during their past three contests. They’ve given up only 4.1 on average (fourth-best) throughout the season.

Minnesota’s offense hasn’t seen much success on the ground and averages just 4.0 yards per tote (second-worst). This might force the Vikings to air it out, which usually bodes well for Addison.

The game will be played at U.S. Bank Stadium (a dome) in Minnesota, so weather and wind won’t be a factor. Green Bay opened as a two-point favorite and the total is currently set at 48.5 points.

The factors above imply a potentially pass-heavy game script for Minnesota and a back-and-forth shootout.

Addison’s standard receiving yards total is listed between 57.5 and 59.5 yards, depending on the sportsbook.

Model Projections for Addison’s Receiving Yards

• ESPN: 74.2
• FantasyPoints.com: 72.5
• Numberfire: 69.73
• 4for4.com: 65.8
• FantasyPros: 65.7
• DraftSharks: 62.8
• BettingPros: 61.1
• Action Network: 60.0
• RotoWire: 55.88
• PFF: 50.5

Parlay Odds Comparison

The odds for this parlay are much more valuable at bet365 compared to every other bookmaker.

Sportsbook	Odds
bet365	-140
FanDuel	-153
BetRivers	-165
DraftKings	-167
Caesars	-180

Note: BetMGM doesn’t offer alternate yards in increments of 40, and ESPNBET didn’t list odds at the time of writing.