NFL Player Prop Bets Week 17

Author

Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Dec 24, 2024

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Editor’s Note: This week’s picks are coming soon!

Last week, there were some interesting performers in the props department.

Pittsburgh Steelers’ quarterback Mason Rudolph threw for 290 yards and two touchdowns against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Rudolph has a yards prop of only 185.5 yards on bet365 (over | -110) and 0.5 touchdown passes on FanDuel (over | -215).

This week, the Bengals will tangle with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Also, Chicago Bears’ QB Justin Fields ran for 97 yards and a touchdown against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 16.

Fields’ rushing yards prop was set at 54.5 on Fanduel (over | -110).

This week, the Cardinals will face Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles.

For bettors that believe history can repeat in Week 17, the best odds for the over on Mahomes’ passing yards prop is over 262.5 (-114) at BetRivers, and the best odds for the over on Hurts’ rushing yards prop is over 40.5 (-114) at FanDuel.

Let’s examine some more potentially profitable player props for Week 17.

And as always, shop around for the best odds!

Dak Prescott – QB, Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys host the Detroit Lions in Week 17, and that makes for a solid passing matchup for Prescott.

After all, Nick Mullens of the Minnesota Vikings threw for 411 yards against the Lions last week.

I have continuously discussed the home and road splits for Prescott, and if I haven’t hammered that nail enough, I’ll hammer it one more time.

Prescott H/RW-L RecordComp %Yards/GameTDINTQB Rating
Home7-074%303.6202122.5
Road3-563%220.810587.1

Detroit’s defense has also allowed some decent passing numbers when on the road, too.

In their last five road games, the Lions’ defense has allowed an average of 308 passing yards per game.

Detroit has been allowing over 300 yards passing in road games, Prescott has been averaging over 300 yards at home home games.

Perfect.

I don’t need Prescott to throw for 400 or more like Mullens last week. I just need 276 passing yards here.

Pick: Prescott – OVER 275.5 Passing Yards

Best Odds: (-114) FanDuel

Najee Harris – RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are rolling with Mason Rudolph under center once again in Week 17, and in this matchup with the Seattle Seahawks, Pittsburgh could benefit from grinding down the clock and keeping DK Metcalf, Kenneth Walker, and the Seahawks’ offense off the field.

Harris has totaled at least 12 carries or more in the last eight games, and last week he took a season-high 19 handoffs.

A season-high of 19 carries?

That’s not a very high number, but with Pittsburgh playing musical chairs with their quarterback position, Harris could be seeing more looks in the final weeks of the season.

Against Seattle, Harris has a decent opportunity to pick up some yards on the ground.

Here’s how top running backs have fared against the Seahawks’ defense in the last six games:

SEA OpponentRunning BackRB Results
Week 11: Los Angeles (N)Royce Freeman17 car, 73 yds
Week 12: San FranciscoChristian McCaffrey19 car, 114 yds, 2 TD
Week 13: DallasTony Pollard20 car, 68 yds, 1 TD
Week 14: San FranciscoChristian McCaffrey16 car, 145 yds
Week 15: PhiladelphiaD’Andre Swift18 car, 74 yds
Week 16: TennesseeDerrick Henry19 car, 88 yds, 1 TD

Between those six backs, they averaged 17.8 carries for 93.7 rushing yards on 5.26 yards per carry.

55 rushing yards is not asking for too much against Seattle’s defense.

Pick: Harris – OVER 54.5 Rushing Yards

Best Odds: (-110) bet365

Travis Kelce – TE, Kansas City Chiefs

Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is a wildly low 59.5 receiving yards on FanDuel.

I’m taking the over on this prop no matter what.

But, for the sake of argument, I’ll examine a little further.

Kelce gets a matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, and that matchup is gold.

Cincinnati has allowed the most receiving yards in the NFL to tight ends, and in 15 games, the Bengals’ defense is allowing an average of 6.5 receptions and 68.2 receiving yards to tight ends.

Cincy’s defense has also allowed at least one touchdown to a tight end in three of the last four games.

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are going to shred the Bengals’ defensive secondary in a get-right game and Kelce will be the ultimate beneficiary.

Pick: Kelce – OVER 59.5 Receiving Yards

Best Odds: (-114) FanDuel

Pick: Kelce – Anytime Touchdown

Best Odds: (+100) FanDuel

Brandon Aiyuk – WR, San Francisco 49ers

Much like the Kansas City Chiefs and their offense are searching for a bounce back against the Cincinnati Bengals, the San Francisco 49ers’ offense will be looking to rebound against an awful Washington Commanders defense in Week 17.

The Commanders have allowed 23 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers this season (2nd-most in NFL), including nine in their last five games.

49ers’ wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk has not scored a touchdown since December 3rd, against the Philadelphia Eagles, and that touchdown resulted in a four-game touchdown streak.

Aiyuk will get back in the touchdown column this week because his matchup with Washington cornerback Kendall Fuller has been cake for opposing wideouts.

Here’s how opposing receivers have done while being predominantly shadowed by Kendall Fuller in the last five weeks.

WAS OpponentReceiver w/ FullerWR Results
Week 11: New York (N)Darius Slayton4 rec, 82 yds, TD
Week 12: DallasBrandin Cooks4 rec, 72 yds, TD
Week 13: MiamiTyreek Hill5 rec, 157 yds, 2 TD
Week 15: Los Angeles (N)Puka Nacua5 rec, 50 yds
Week 16: New York (A)Garrett Wilson9 rec, 76 yds

In the last five games, that’s an average of 5.4 receptions for 87.4 receiving yards and four total touchdowns against Kendall Fuller.

The matchup for Aiyuk is too great to ignore.

Pick: Aiyuk – OVER 66.5 Receiving Yards

Best Odds: (-114) FanDuel

Pick: Aiyuk – Anytime Touchdown
Best Odds: (+120) bet365

Author

About the author

A fan of both the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, which is rare! Thomas provides sports betting content with the intent to educate and enter...

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