NFL Player Prop Bets Week 18

Author

Lawrence Smelser

Updated: Jan 2, 2025

  • DraftKings logo
    Bet $5, Get $150 If Your Bet Wins
    Claim Now1 per new customer. Min. $5 deposit. Min. $5 bet. Get 1 promo code to redeem 1-month of access to NFL+ Premium and max. $250 issued as non-withdrawable Bonus Bets that expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: dkng.co/ftball. NFL+ Premium Terms: Offer only for eligible subscribers & must be redeemed by 11:59PM 9/30/24; After 1-month promo period, subscription automatically renews each month at then-current price (currently $14.99/mth) until cancelled; Addt’l terms: nfl.com/terms. Offer expires 9/19/24 at 11:59 PM ET.

The final week of the NFL regular season has arrived. Try not to get emotional.

We’ll have to wait until September for it to return.

Week 18 is the final chance for players to cash in on their regular-season bonuses. We’ve provided player prop tips below for receivers Courtland Sutton (DEN vs. KC) and Mike Evans (TB vs. NO). Both have milestones they are trying to reach.

Remember to bet responsibly and monitor your bankroll carefully.

Read our Week 18 NFL odds and parlay picks for more information regarding the upcoming action.

Note: Model projections for each player won’t be included since these props are based on season-long bonuses.

Week 18 Player Props

The odds for both picks were correct at the time of writing. They were also shopped across all legal U.S. sportsbooks.

Courtland Sutton 80+ Receiving Yards (+165 at bet365)

The Broncos’ WR1 can earn a $500,000 bonus if he can record 1,065 receiving yards during the regular season. He currently sits 82 yards away at 983.

Denver’s playoff scenario works out well for him, thanks to the team not clinching a post-season berth yet.

At 9-7, the Broncos must win to get in if the Bengals (8-8) beat the Steelers on Saturday and if the Dolphins (8-8) defeat the New York Jets.

Both Miami and Denver play simultaneously (4:25 p.m. ET), so head coach Sean Payton has to play his starters.

What also benefits Sutton is his opponent: the Kansas City Chiefs (15-1). They already locked up the No. 1 seed in the AFC, along with the first-round bye.

This means they’ll likely bench all the starters, and if they play at all, it might be for a series or two. There is no point in head coach Andy Reid putting anyone at risk of injury.

The oddsmakers also see this happening because almost every sportsbook lists the Broncos as 10.5-point favorites.

Sutton, an SMU product, has been the clear-cut top-receiving threat for Denver this year. He’s recorded a 23.3% target share and has recorded 28.2% of the yards among all Broncos wideouts.

He’s also averaged 61.4 receiving yards per game in 16 contests and has recorded 80 or more yards in four of the past nine contests.

It won’t be hard for his quarterback, Bo Nix, to feed him a few more targets than normal and get him 19 yards more than his season average in order to reward him with the $500,000 bonus.

On a normal day, Kansas City’s secondary (No. 10 against the pass) might’ve made it more difficult for Sutton to hit 80+ receiving yards, but since he’ll be playing the second and third-stringers in clear weather, it shouldn’t pose a problem.

At the time of writing, only bet365 offered this line of 80+ yards (+165).

Mike Evans over 92.5 receiving yards (-115 at bet365)

We’ve been successfully rolling with Evans props the past few weeks as he chases an 11th-straight 1,000-yard season and attempts to continue making NFL history.

The Texas A&M product needs five receptions and 85 receiving yards in this game in order to cash in on a $3 million bonus. Recording 85 yards will also put him at 1,000 yards.

Evans’ bonus requires him to have 70 receptions, 1,000 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns during the regular season. He’s already completed the touchdown requirement with 11.

Two weeks ago, during a press conference, Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield said he was thinking about the 1,000-yard record probably more than Evans himself.

He wasn’t kidding. Mayfield has been heavily targeting his WR1 and has kept him on pace for both the bonus and yardage mark.

While rookie third-rounder Jalen McMillan has made a name for himself over the past few weeks and firmly grabbed hold of WR2, Evans clearly remains the alpha in this offense.

During the last three weeks, Evans has 22 receptions on 28 targets and 325 yards. The Super Bowl champion has also eclipsed 92.5 receiving yards in three of his past five outings.

He also leads all receivers in separation score, according to Fantasy Points Data.

It’s been a race against time for the Galveston, Texas native to hit the 1,000-yard mark due to missing Weeks 8-10 due to injury.

After the Week 11 bye and in his past six contests, he’s earned a 25.6% target share (8.3 targets per game), a 30.6% first-read share and is averaging 96.7 yards per game.

What’s also extremely impressive is his 78% catch rate and 86% of his targets being catchable.

The 31-year-old faces a mouthwatering matchup against a New Orleans defense that allows the fifth-most yards to opposing wide receiver rooms (165.5 yards per contest) and ranks sixth-worst defending the pass (239.9 yards per game).

PFF gives Evans the following matchup ratings (out of 100) against the Saints’ defensive backs: Left corner Alontae Taylor (99.9), slot corner Ugo Amadi (96.7) and right corner Ga’Quincy McKinstry (88.9).

This won’t be a case of resting starters for the Bucs (13.5 point-favorites). A win would clinch the NFC South and a playoff berth, while a loss and a Falcons win would eliminate them.

Both Tampa Bay and Atlanta play at 1 p.m. (ET). Bucs head coach Todd Bowles is known for keeping in his starters even during blowout wins. This likely won’t change, especially when incentives can be hit.

Despite Evans needing just 85 yards, the over 92.5 yards (just eight more) is extremely appealing at -115.

The line holds value thanks to DraftKings listing Evans’ total at 93.5 yards and -120 to hit the over.

Other bookmakers weren’t listing this prop at the time of writing.

Author

About the author

Lawrence is a seasoned sports analyst with a combined decade of experience in the journalism, sports betting and iGaming industries. His expertise lie...

[Read full bio]