NFL Player Prop Bets Week 4 2024

The NFL season is starting to heat up as we enter Week 4. Teams are starting to showcase what they’re made of and build division leads.

Others are beginning to dig themselves a difficult hole to climb out of.

Kansas City, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Seattle and Minnesota are the only remaining undefeated franchises sitting at 3-0.

The Steelers and Vikings are the surprise teams, with new quarterbacks Justin Fields and Sam Darnold finding instant success.

Fields is the backup to Russell Wilson but might have earned himself the starting job thanks to the hot start.

Cincinnati and Jacksonville are the only two winless organizations at 0-3.

It’s been a shocker for the NFL world to see former National Champion quarterbacks Joe Burrow (LSU) and Trevor Lawrence (Clemson) sit at the bottom of their divisions.

Since 1990, 162 teams have started the year 0-3, and only four (2.5%) have reached the postseason.

Entering the season, most bookmakers listed the Bengals’ win total set at 10.5, and many pundits thought they would compete for the AFC North and potentially make a playoff run with Burrow healthy again. The Jaguars’ win total was set at 8.5.

We’ll provide two Week 4 player props for a pair of running backs in this article. Remember to bet responsibly and monitor your bankroll carefully.

Week 4 Player Props

The following picks are for rush attempts. Odds were correct at the time of writing.

Aaron Jones over 13.5 rush attempts (-108 at Caesars)

Aaron Jones will be on a mission Sunday against his former team, the Green Bay Packers, to prove they shouldn’t have let him go in the offseason.

After Green Bay tried to reduce his salary heading into this campaign, Jones ended up testing the free agent market and signing a one-year, $7 million deal with Minnesota.

The 29-year-old spent seven seasons with Green Bay and cracked 1,000 yards rushing three times. He scored 45 touchdowns for the Packers and was selected to one Pro Bowl.

Last week, the former UTEP product recorded 19 rush attempts for 102 yards against Houston in a 34-7 victory.

Jones also eclipsed 13.5 carries (14) in Minnesota’s 28-6 Week 1 win over the Giants. He’s covered the number in two of his last three games.

The talented running back isn’t considered a bell cow, but when he’s healthy, coaches aren’t afraid to let him carry the load.

At the end of the 2023 season with Green Bay, Jones recorded 21, 20 and 22 rush attempts in Weeks 16-18.

Minnesota will likely try to exploit Green Bay’s weak run defense since the unit allows opponents to average 4.7 yards per carry. Only eight teams in the league have performed worse in the category.

The Packers also surrender an average of 105.7 rush yards per contest. This number is a little skewed since they only allowed eight carries to the Titans’ running backs last week due to a 30-14 blowout win.

This caused Tennessee to abandon the run early and led to a pass-heavy game script. Had the Titans kept it closer, the 105.7 yards per game average would be much higher.

Prior to that victory, Green Bay has struggled against opposing RB1s.

Green Bay vs. RB1s in Weeks 1 and 2

Week/Result	Opposing RB	Performance
Week 1: 34-29 loss vs. PHI	Saquon Barkley	24 carries for 109 yards
Week 2: 16-10 win vs. IND	Jonathan Taylor	12 carries 103 yards

The Vikings are only 2.5-point underdogs and are 3-0, so if the contest is competitive, Jones should be fed plenty of carries.

The -108 line to surpass 13.5 carries at Caesars is an excellent price thanks to other bookmakers such as FanDuel (-120), DraftKings (-115) and Bet365 (-115), all listing him at worse odds for him to record over 13.5 rush attempts.

Many of the top analytical models in the fantasy and betting industries also forecast Jones to exceed the 13.5-carry mark.

Model Projections for Jones’ Rush Attempts at Green Bay

• Action Network: 15.4
• FantasyPros: 14.4
• Numberfire: 14.36
• ESPN: 14
• BettingPros: 13.9
• Yahoo: 12.9

James Cook over 12.5 rush attempts (-130 at Bet365)

The 12.5 rush attempts total for Buffalo’s James Cook certainly feels like a discount due to him receiving 11 carries in each of the last two contests.

The reason Cook only received 11 carries was due to the Bills destroying both the Jaguars (47-10) and Dolphins (31-10).

Against Jacksonville, Buffalo held such a heavy lead that Doug McDermott pulled his starters early in the fourth quarter.

The game was out of hand by halftime, resulting in backups Ray Davis and Ty Johnson combining for 10 carries.

The same scenario occurred against Miami. Buffalo opened up a large lead early, and a concussion to Dolphins’ quarterback Tua Tagovailoa all but ended any chance for the outing to be competitive.

Ironically, backups Davis and Johnson also recorded 10 combined rushes due to the starters being benched early.

Cook scored three touchdowns in that game and has been dangerous on the ground, averaging 4.6 yards per tote.

In Week 1, during a more competitive 31-20 win over Arizona, Cook ran the ball 19 times. Dating back to last season, when games are closer, Cook receives more carries.

During the final four regular season games of 2023, Cook recorded 25, 20, 16 and 13 rush attempts. In total, he cleared 12.5 carries in 11-of-17 (64.7%) contests.

The former Georgia Bulldog has also cleared 12.5 carries in 10 of his last 15 (66.7%) outings.

So far this season, Baltimore’s opponents have averaged 17.6 rushes per game.

The Ravens are 2.5-point favorites over the Bills, so if the contest is close like the bookmakers predict, Cook should receive plenty of opportunities to run the football.

Every game for the Ravens (1-2) has come down to the wire.

In Week 1, they lost to the Chiefs by a touchdown. The next two results against the Raiders (loss) and Cowboys (win) were each decided by three points.

Bet365’s odds of -130 for Cook to hit over 12.5 carries are more than fair, thanks to other sportsbooks such as FanDuel and DraftKings featuring his total at 13.5. Caesars (-145) and BetMGM (-140) list his total at 12.5, but at worse prices.

Model Projections for Cook’s Rush Attempts at Baltimore

• ESPN: 16
• FantasyPros: 14.5
• Yahoo: 14.2
• BettingPros: 14
• Action Network: 14
• Numberfire: 12.79

If you’re looking for Week 4 odds or parlay picks, check out our latest articles:

• Week 4 Odds
• Week 4 Parlays