NFL Player Prop Bets Week 5 2024

The NFL regular season is flying by quickly, and we’re already more than a quarter into it as Week 5 approaches.

Kansas City and Minnesota remain the two undefeated franchises at 4-0.

It’s not surprising to see the Chiefs collecting victories. It is for the Vikings, whose win total was set at 6.5 by many bookmakers.

Cincinnati finally recorded its first win of the year after beating Carolina 34-24.

Tennessee also avoided falling into the 0-4 hole thanks to its 31-12 win over Miami. The lonesome team without a win is Jacksonville.

It was a heartbreaker for the Jaguars as they fell 24-20 to the Texans.

They appeared destined for victory before C.J. Stroud found former Jaguar Dare Ogunbowale for a 1-yard touchdown with 18 seconds left to seal the deal 24-20.

We’ll provide two Week 5 player props in this article for receiving yards and receptions.

The Jets’ Garrett Wilson and the Browns’ Jordan Akins are the two players highlighted.

Week 5 Player Props 

The odds for both picks were correct at the time of writing.

Jordan Akins under 16.5 rec yds (-110 at DraftKings)

Jordan Akins has been filling in for David Njoku as Cleveland’s starting tight end. Njoku has been out with an ankle sprain but practiced in a limited fashion on Wednesday and holds a questionable tag entering Sunday’s contest against the Commanders.

Even if Njoku were to miss the game, this line still holds value thanks to fellow tight end Blake Whiteheart cutting into Akins’ playing time.

Last week against Las Vegas, Akins played a season-low 28 snaps (47%). Whiteheart played a season-high 21 snaps (36%). Blocking tight end Geoff Swaim played 24 snaps (41%).

In the contest, Akins recorded one catch for 10 yards on two targets and ran just 19 routes. Whiteheart ran nine routes and recorded three catches on three targets.

Akins has eclipsed 16.5 yards in two of four outings (Weeks 1 and 3). This is when Whiteheart was seeing less of the field.

This season, Akins has had an average depth of target (ADOT) of just 4.5 yards.

The Commanders have also defended the tight end position extremely well.

All Tight Ends vs. Commanders

Week	Opponents’ TEs	Targets	Recs	Yards
1	Buccaneers	2	1	5
2	Giants	0	0	0
3	Bengals	9	8	69
4	Cardinals	3	2	12

As shown in the table, tight end groups for each team have failed to exceed 16.5 yards in three of four contests against Washington.

Bengals tight ends Mike Gesicki and Erick All Jr. combined for 69 yards against the Commanders but are used more as receivers (especially Gesicki).

If Njoku is healthy enough to suit up on Sunday, Akins will barely play, especially if Whiteheart is active. Even if Njoku doesn’t, should Cleveland continue to deploy Whiteheart, there’s a decent chance Akins goes under 16.5 yards receiving.

This prop is currently only available on DraftKings, likely due to Njoku being questionable.

Many of the top fantasy and betting analytical models also predict Akins to go under the 16.5 receiving yards total.

Model Projections for Akins’ Yards vs. Washington

• Action Network: 5
• ESPN: 6
• RotoWire: 6.6
• Yahoo: 6.6
• FantasyPros: 8.8
• Numberfire: 9.1

Garrett Wilson over 4.5 recs (-145 at ESPNBet)

Tipping -145 bets isn’t something I’ll do too frequently, but when the same line for Garrett Wilson is much worse at other books, in this case, I believe it’s worth it.

Sportsbook Odds for Wilson to Record Over 4.5 Receptions

Caesars	-169
bet365	-160
FanDuel	-160
DraftKings	-155
BetMGM	-155

Many pundits and fans believed with Aaron Rodgers healthy that Wilson would have a breakout season, but it’s actually been a slow start for the former 2022 No. 10 overall pick.

Through four games, Wilson has recorded just 20 receptions for 191 yards and a touchdown.

Although, Wilson has surpassed the 4.5-catch mark in three of four (75%) contests. He’s also been targeted frequently.

Aside from just six targets in Week 2, the Ohio State product earned 11, 9 and 8 targets in Weeks 1, 3 and 4.

Last week, Wilson probably would’ve filled up the stats sheet and collected more targets, but he was facing arguably the No. 1 shutdown corner in the NFL: Patrick Surtain II.

Rain also played a role in the low scoring 10-9 loss to the Broncos that significantly impacted both teams passing games.

Wilson now has a much more favorable matchup against the Minnesota Vikings, who rank dead last against the pass (allowing 274.2 yards per game).

Despite the mediocre start, the opportunity for Wilson is there. He’s commanding a 25.6% target share, 31.9% air yards share, and a 33.3% red zone target share.

What’s also impressive, thanks to both him and Rodgers, is Wilson’s 64.7% catchable target rate.

While things have been far from perfect for the Jets offense, there is a massive difference between switching from Zach Wilson to the legendary Rodgers, even being 40 years old coming off a torn achilles.

Wilson is the clear WR1 in the offense and even last year with Wilson, he eclipsed 4.5 catches in 11/17 (64.7%) outings.

So far this campaign, wide receivers have performed well against Minnesota’s secondary. Last week, Packers WR1 Jayden Reed torched them for 139 yards on seven receptions.

Top WR Performances vs. Vikings

Week/Opponent	Receiver	Receptions	Yards
Week 1/Giants	Malik Nabers	5	61
Week 2/49ers	Deebo Samuel	8	110
Week 3/Texans	Stefon Diggs	10	94
Week 4/Packers	Jayden Reed	7	139

Sportsbooks list the Vikings as 2.5-point favorites over the Jets. If the game is closely contested or Minnesota grabs a sizeable lead, the game script will allow Wilson to be frequently targeted.

The game will be played on neutral ground at the Northumberland Development Project in London, England.

Model Projections for Wilson’s Receptions against Minnesota

• ESPN: 5
• Action Network: 4.9
• FantasyPros: 4.9
• Numberfire: 4.9
• BettingPros: 4.9
• RotoWire: 4.8
• Yahoo: 4.8

If you’re looking for this week’s odds, view our Week 5 preview. We’ll also post our parlay picks for Week 5 soon, so you can see our tips for this weekend’s games.