NFL Parlay Picks Week 6 2024

Week 6 of the NFL started Thursday night with the San Francisco 49ers spoiling Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith’s birthday celebrations by beating them 36-24 in Seattle.

Both teams are now 3-3 and sit atop the NFC West, with the 49ers holding the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Four games are scheduled for the Sunday late afternoon slate, and we’ve crafted up a same-game parlay (SGP) for one of them: The NFC South rivalry between the Panthers and Falcons.

Remember to never bet more than you can afford and monitor your bankroll in a responsible manner.

Note: The parlay odds were correct at the time of writing.

Week 6 Alternate Yards Same-Game Parlay

Mooney 25+ rec yds, Johnson 40+ rec yds and Dalton 1+ TD passes (+102 at FanDuel)

Mooney’s Outlook (25+ Receiving Yards)

Darnell Mooney needed a change of scenery while playing in a mediocre offense in Chicago, which always lacked a quarterback during the first four years of his career.

He’s been put in the perfect situation with the Atlanta Falcons and veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins. Mooney has thrived being the WR2 with gunslinger Cousins and in offensive coordinator Zac Robinson’s system.

Mooney endured a paltry debut in Week 1, with just one catch for 15 yards on three targets. Since then, he’s been on fire and has established an excellent rapport with Cousins.

Darnell Mooney’s 2023-2024 Game Log

Week/Opponent	Receiving Yards	Receptions/Targets
Week 1 vs. PIT	15	1 (3)
Week 2 @ PHI	77	3 (7)
Week 3 vs. KC	66	8 (8)
Week 4 vs. NO	56	3 (6)
Week 5 vs. TB	105	9 (16)

As the game log shows, Mooney exploded last week against the Falcons, recording nine receptions for 105 yards on a team-high 16 targets.

The Tulane product has eclipsed 25+ yards receiving in four straight contests and four out of five (80%) on the season. He’s also averaging 66 yards per game.

Cousins has targeted Mooney on 28.2% of his first reads, according to Derek Brown of FantasyPros. Mooney also has a 21.9% target share and 37.1% of Atlanta’s air yards.

The Falcons will face the Panthers on Sunday, who rank 22nd against the pass, allowing an average of 226.6 yards per game.

Mooney’s alternate yards prop of 25 or more required by FanDuel holds a line of -450. Other bookmakers, such as DraftKings, list him at a much worse price of -600.

Caesars also has him at -450, but to record 30+ yards. His regular receiving yards total is 48.5 yards on most operators.

The top betting and fantasy football models also project him to easily surpass 25+ yards.

Model Projections for Mooney’s Receiving Yards

• ESPN: 66 yards
• FantasyPros: 58 yards
• Action Network: 57 yards
• Numberfire: 56.2 yards
• RotoWire: 54.78 yards

Johnson’s Outlook (40+ Receiving Yards)

Carolina’s top wide receiver couldn’t showcase his talent during the first two weeks of the season because of Bryce Young’s poor play under center.

Johnson recorded just 19 and 15 yards on six targets per contest.

After head coach Dave Canales benched Young in favor of veteran Andy Dalton, Johnson’s production skyrocketed.

In Weeks 3 and 4 Johnson was targeted 27 times and finished with eight receptions for 122 yards as well as seven receptions for 83 yards.

Last week, in a super windy game against an elite Chicago pass defense, the former Steeler was targeted on just six occasions and ended with three catches for 20 yards.

He’ll face a much better matchup against an Atlanta secondary that has struggled against opposing WR1s.

WR1s vs. Atlanta

Week	Receiver/Team	Receiving Yards	Receptions
Week 1	George Pickens (PIT)	85	6
Week 2	Devonta Smith (PHI)	76	7
Week 3	Rashee Rice (KC)	110	12
Week 4	Chris Olave (NO)	87	8
Week 5	Mike Evans (TB)	62	5

Note: Philadelphia’s A.J. Brown was inactive against Atlanta in Week 2.

All five WR1s who faced the Falcons have eclipsed the 40-yard mark required for the parlay. Top wideouts have averaged 84 yards per game against Atlanta.

Johnson has commanded a 27.4% target share and a 39.7% first-read share with Dalton.

He also accounts for 46% of Carolina’s air yards when Dalton starts (Data from FantasyPros).

This leg of the parlay for Johnson to have 40+ receiving yards is -330 at FanDuel compared to DraftKings (-425) and Caesars (-500).

Johnson’s standard total for receiving yards is listed at 61.5 at FanDuel.

Model Projections for Johnson’s Receiving Yards

• Action Network: 67 yards
• ESPN: 65 yards
• FantasyPros: 63.4 yards
• RotoWire: 61.92 yards
• Numberfire: 60.9 yards
• BettingPros: 57.8 yards

Dalton’s Outlook (1+ TD Passes)

The Carolina quarterback didn’t throw a touchdown pass last week against the Bears in a 36-10 blowout loss but threw five during his previous two starts.

During his first start in Week 3 against Las Vegas, the former TCU Horned Frog tossed three touchdowns. A week later, he threw two against Cincinnati.

Last year, Dalton only started one game for an injured Young in Week 3 and threw two touchdowns in a 37-27 loss to Seattle.

In his four starts as a Panther, the 36-year-old has thrown two or more touchdowns on three occasions (75% of the time) and averages 1.75 touchdown passes per outing.

Dalton will now face an Atlanta defense that has allowed an average of 1.2 touchdown passes per game after five weeks.

A week ago, Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay quarterback) recorded three touchdown passes against its secondary.

Atlanta should probably have allowed more touchdown passes against them since they faced Justin Fields during his Steelers debut in Week 1 when he only attempted 23 passes.

The Falcons rank 21st in the NFL in terms of average opposing passer rating (95.7). They are also 21st against opponents’ quarterback success rate per dropback (FantasyPros).

Three out of five (60%) quarterbacks have thrown for at least 1+ touchdowns against Atlanta this campaign.

Model Projections for Dalton’s TD Passes

• Action Network: 1.37 TD Passes
• FantasyPros: 1.3 TD Passes
• Numberfire: 1.3 TD Passes
• BettingPros: 1.3 TD Passes
• RotoWire: 1.29 TD Passes
• ESPN: 1 TD Pass

Also, check out weekly NFL odds and picks at our dedicated articles here:

• Week 6 Odds
• Week 6 Props