NFL Player Prop Bets Week 6 2024

After five weeks of NFL action, two teams sit atop each conference at 5-0, the Kansas City Chiefs (AFC) and Minnesota Vikings (NFC).

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs took care of business on Monday night by defeating the Saints 26-13.

Sam Darnold and the Vikings held on to beat the Jets 23-17 in London after a furious comeback attempt from Aaron Rodgers.

Entering Week 5, Jacksonville was the only winless team remaining, and it finally escaped the gauntlet after outlasting the Colts 37-34 in a thriller.

On his 25th birthday, quarterback Trevor Lawrence led the Jaguars on an 8-play, 39-yard drive, which set up Cam Little’s game-winning 49-yard field goal with 17 seconds left.

This week, we’ll provide player prop picks for a pair of tight ends who attended Stanford.

Remember to bet responsibly and carefully manage the bankroll.

Week 6 Player Props

The odds for both picks were correct at the time of writing.

Zach Ertz over 25.5 yards (-114 at FanDuel)

After dealing with injuries for a few years, tight end Zach Ertz has firmly reestablished himself as a starting tight end in the NFL with the Washington Commanders.

Through five games, Ertz has recorded 17 receptions for 160 yards and has been targeted 24 times. He’s quickly become rookie Jayden Daniels’ safety blanket.

Ertz’s total to go over 25.5 yards at FanDuel is appealing due to the 33-year-old exceeding that number in 3/5 contests (60%).

The 6-foot-5 tight end went over the mark in the season’s first three games with 28 yards, 62 yards and 38 yards.

He hasn’t gone over 25.5 yards during the past two outings (22 and 10 yards), but in his last game, despite only having two catches for 10 yards, he ended the game with a team-high eight targets (tied with Terry McLaurin).

The Stanford product also enjoyed a 30% target share in Week 5 and has an 18.2% target share on the season (4.8 targets per game). He also owns a 25% target share in the red zone.

Ertz has played a significant role in Washington’s passing game in 2024. He has a 65.2 route percentage compared to a 7.8 blocking percentage.

He’s averaging 1.2 yards per route run and holds an 18% target per route run rate.

The Orange, California native is averaging 32 yards per game, and faces a nice matchup against a Baltimore defense that has struggled against starting tight ends.

TE1s vs. Ravens

Week	Player	Team	Targets	Recs	Yards
1	Travis Kelce	Chiefs	4	3	34
2	Brock Bowers	Raiders	9	9	98
3	Jake Ferguson	Cowboys	11	6	95
4	Dalton Kincaid	Bills	7	5	47
5	Mike Gesicki	Bengals	2	2	31

Note: In Week 1, Kansas City’s TE2 Noah Gray also beat the 25.5-yard mark with three receptions for 37 yards.

As showcased in the table, the Ravens have allowed an average of 61 yards per game to opposing TE1s.

All five have eclipsed the 25.5-yard total needed at FanDuel for this prop.

The Commanders are also 6.5-point underdogs playing in Baltimore, which can lead to a game script involving Daniels throwing a lot.

The -114 odds at FanDuel hold value thanks to other books such as DraftKings and BetMGM listing the over at -120. Bet365 features Ertz at -125 for 25 or more receiving yards.

Fantasy football and betting models from some of the top sources in the industry are also projecting Ertz to record more than 25.5 receiving yards.

Model Projections for Ertz’s Receiving Yards in Week 6

• ESPN: 40
• Action Network: 37
• FantasyPros: 32.9
• Numberfire: 32.4
• RotoWire: 26.9

Elijah Higgins under 1.5 recs (-120 at DraftKings)

This line caught my eye thanks to Arizona’s starting tight end, Trey McBride, returning to action in Week 4 and being healthy enough to resume his role as the TE1.

This causes backup Elijah Higgins to fall back down the depth chart and receive limited usage and opportunities.

Higgins, a second-year pro, has gone under 1.5 receptions in three of five games. However, in contests where McBride was active, he’s been under in 3/4 (75%).

Elijah Higgins Game Log

Week/Opponent	Receptions	Targets	Yards
Week 1 @ BUF	2	2	12
Week 2 vs. LAR	1	1	18
Week 3 vs. DET	1	1	11
Week 4 vs. WAS*	2	3	12
Week 5 @ SF	1	1	2

Note: Starting TE Trey McBride was inactive in Week 4.

As displayed in the game log, Higgins has received more than one target on just one occasion (Week 1) when McBride was active.

When McBride sees the field, Higgins averages just 1.25 targets per game.

Last week, Higgins only owned a 10% target per route run rate, a season-low, and a 3.3% target share.

Higgins also played just 41% of snaps, compared to McBride’s 88% and Tip Reipman’s (blocking tight end) 45%.

DraftKings is one of the only books listing Higgins’ reception odds due to McBride’s return.

Model Projections for Higgins’ Reception Total in Week 6

• Action Network: 0.80
• FantasyPros: 0.80
• RotoWire: 0.80
• Numberfire: 0.87
• ESPN: 1